Eleven Theses On The Trump Induced Interregnum
A time of reckoning for Western Civilisation
Thesis 1
The election of Trump and the subsequent chain of events unleashed by his self-consciously driven disruptive actions indicate that there are no quick-fix solutions to the deep-seated structural problems facing the United States and other Western economies. Containing the corrosive effects of the market requires an orientation towards the long-term. Recent events also show that the leading players running western economies lack the will or the imagination to take advantage of any of the opportunities provided in the current disrupted global conjuncture.
Thesis 2
What developments in the very brief Trump 2.0 era have shown is to highlight a degree of continuity in the midst of disruption. Disruption has brought to the surface many of the underlying pre-existing trends responsible for the malaise afflicting western societies. The crystallisation of these trends show that the current upheaval of global dimensions is one that encompasses fundamental economic, political, cultural and moral dimensions.
Thesis 3
Whatever his intentions, Trump’s one way bet on mercantilist policies represented a unique attempt to challenge the fatalistic culture surrounding the worship of the markets, However, reversion towards a mercantilist trade policy can only play a modest role in providing a solution to the problem of economic stagnation and regime of low productivity. At best they can provide a breathing space for re-shoring to occur. At worst they can distract attention from facing up to the difficult demands of economic restructuring.
Thesis 4
The use of tariffs by Trump to restore America’s industrial power can only have a modest influence since there are many important subjective and objective obstacles that need to be overcome before this objective can be realised. Similar obstacles face the member states of the European Union.
Thesis 5
On the subjective side, recent decades have seen the de-skilling of the working and middle class in the United States and many other western societies. To make matters worse the de-skilling of the working classes has run in parallel with their medicalisation. Consequently, the labour force of these societies are neither able nor prepared to play they kind of a role that the restoration of a dynamic economy demands. To make matters worse, the universities have created a large cohort of relatively unproductive group of graduates who lack both the intellectual/academic attainment, and the technical skills required to assist society to become a more dynamic economy.
At present many of them are employed in jobs that can make little contribution to the transformation of the economy on more productive and efficient lines.
Thesis 6
The western world is under the formal rule of technocratic managerial establishment that can neither lead nor direct society. Unable to exercise a genuine leadership role it simply cannot get things done. This ruling establishment is composed of individuals who are not only risk-averse but also responsibility averse. Addicted to outsourcing decision making to an army of consultants, NGOs and international institutions, this group lacks the leadership resources necessary to take advantage of the current upheaval on the global markets. To make matters worse this group leads a life that is culturally and emotionally detached from the rest of society and therefore they are not able to make the connections necessary for inspired leadership/
Thesis 7
Arguably the greatest challenge facing western society is its inability to give meaning to authority. Without authority the exercise of power loses its meaning. The feeble status of political authority is demonstrated by the lack of trust in the commanding institutions of society. Without authoritative leaders, society lacks direction and finds it difficult to gain a sense of purpose. In previous time the absence of authority led to a competition between different contenders for authority. Today we are some way off from such a contest to occur.
Thesis 8
At present there is no counter-crisis ideology or coherent programme for overcoming the prevailing mood of stasis nor to provide future direction. Without such a programme it is not possible to set clear objectives and establish institutions that could realise them. So, although there is a lot of talk about re-shoring or re-industrialisation there is an absence of the kind of coherent plans that are analogous to a 1930s type of New Deal.
Thesis 9
One of the most striking expressions of the current state of stasis is the crisis of motivation that prevails in the West. Society lacks a robust sense of a common purpose. Over recent decades a combination of factors- decline of national consciousness, erosion of a sense of duty to the nation, open borders, leading to mass migration – have led to the unraveling of social cohesion. These developments, which have been reinforced by cultural conflict and political polarisation have undermined the capacity of governments to forge a sense of national purpose that is necessary for gaining a measure of control required to deal with the current crisis.
Thesis 10
Both internationally and domestically the current period is one of de-alignment. The de-alignment between western allies can be seen in relation to the outbreak of rivalries and disputes over rearmament, the war in Ukraine and over NATO. Within nations there is process of de-alignment in the political spheres. The old political parties have lost much of their political base and can no longer ensure that they can retain their dominant position. At the moment there is a space between the current state of de-alignment and the future when a phase of re-alignment can occur. For now, we are stuck in a hiatus between the de-alignment and the re-alignment of national and political forces.
Thesis 11
Until now the developments discussed above have allowed China to benefit from the slothfulness of the West. At present Western nations are preoccupied with positioning themselves against one another. None of them are prepared to face up to the global challenge posed by China. How long the West will continue to remain in its state of stupor is difficult to predict. What is needed is a movement committed to forcing the West to confront its loss of civilisational self-belief.
A reminder of Neema Parvini's 'The Populist Delusion' : "This is a book about the realities of power ... It has at its core a thesis, which absolutely contradicts the democratic or populist delusion, that the people are or ever could be sovereign. An organised minority always rules over the majority. Perhaps as a testament to that fact, a recent empirical study showed that public opinion has a near-zero impact on law-making in the USA across 1,779 policy issues. In fact, my thesis goes further than that to suggest that all social change at all times and in all places has been top-down and driven by elites rather than ‘the people’. Those movements which have the appearance of being organic and bottom-up protests—for example, the 1960s Civil Rights movement in the USA or the Russian Revolutions of 1917—were, in fact, tightly organised and funded by elites. Those attempts to drive change from the ‘bottom-up’, which is to say, in the absence of elite organisation—we might think of the events of 6th January 2020 in Washington DC or the recent Yellow Vest movement in France—will amount to little more than an inchoate rabble."
If Parvini is right then thesis 9 suggests we will not be seeing a solution as the balkanisation of society leads to competing 'inchoate rabbles'. The only option then, according to T E Utley, when a government's duty to maintain cultural and moral unity fails, is to rule by tyranny. Thus Starmer's continuation and intensification of the previous governments illiberal legislation over so called online harms. Regulation over 'disinformation' and the further limiting of free speech, of the ending of privacy (forcing back doors into software and the like), digital currencies that begin with alleged safeguards that you can guarantee will erode into control, are the early stages of political tyranny. George Osborne introduced bank account raids for large debtors to HMRC. Labour intend to extend it to any size of debtor. And so on and so on. The police have become servants of the state not the law as they raid grannies for confiscating their child's iPad or a journalist for a long ago tweet.
For your next pub quiz, ask for the name of a government that ever fully repealed legislation that infringed on civil liberties, other than exceptional war time legislation, or relinquished various controls on the population.
'Cultural and moral unity' may never have been 100% but it was a dominant culture, a definite sense of 'we', before rapid, mass immigration.
Domination by Islam is the likely resolution of thesis 7 unless we (who?) do something soon. Let's hope - inshallah - that we get a government committed to stopping this before it is too late (which it may already be).
The failings you write about are the result of the demise of top down government Yes, we are in a transitional stage and it is painful. No we have never had a people led society but we are going to. The internet has changed everything forever. Knowledge (power) will be available to everyone. Probably not in our lifetime, but we are setting the seeds.